Internal migrants contribute 10% to GDP: UNESCO

New Delhi: Internal migrants, estimated to constitute about 30 percent of the population, contribute 10 percent to the country's GDP with employment having become the biggest reason behind migration, a UNESCO report has said.

The report considers internal migration as being a key factor behind prosperous cities, boosting economic activity and growth.

Citing various sources, it estimated that following Census 2011, the number of migrants may have increased to about 400 million from 309 million in 2001.

The report, however, says that most of the million-plus cities have recorded significant decline in population growth, hinting that they have become "less welcoming" to migrants.

Against the projected 400 million migrants in India, their global number was 740 million in 2009.

The report entitled 'Social Inclusion of Internal Migrants in India' says women form an overwhelming majority of migrants in the country ? 70.7 percent as per Census 2001 and 80 percent according to NSSO (2007-08) data.

It said 91.3 percent women in rural areas and 60.8 percent in urban areas were migrants, putting such high numbers down to marriage.

About 30 percent of the migrants in the country belong to the 15-29 years age group.

The report says migrants are often victims of politics based on "vote banks along ethnic, linguistic and religious lines" and face political and administrative exclusion and discrimination.

Women migrants face a double discrimination for reasons particular to their gender, it adds.

Migration, it says, is an integral part of development and the rising contribution of cities to India's GDP would not be possible without them.

"Internal migrants contribute cheap labour for manufacturing and services and, in doing so, contribute to the national GDP, but this is not recognised. Far from being a drain and burden, they are in fact providing a subsidy," the report says.

"Migrants are looked upon as outsiders by the host administration and as a burden on systems and resources. Their right to the city is denied on the political defence of the 'sons of the soil' theory which aims to create vote banks along ethnic, linguistic and religious lines," it says.

The UNESCO report has pushed for promoting positive political discourse and avoiding a prejudiced negative portrayal of internal migrants.

Though not counted as metropolitan cities, Surat, Nashik, Ludhiana, Faridabad and Pune are among the million-plus cities which house the maximum migrants with respect to their overall population, the UNESCO report says.

Migrants make up 58 percent of the population in Surat, 57 percent in Ludhiana, 55 percent in Faridabad, 50 percent in Nashik and 45 percent in Pune, according to Census 2001 data cited by the report.

They account for 43 percent of the population in Delhi as well as in Mumbai.

Calling for better legal and social protection for them, the report says internal migrants are particularly vulnerable due to low rates of education and ignorance about their rights.

The overall literacy rate, as per Census 2011, was 74.04 percent with male and female literacy being at 82.14 and 65.46 percent, respectively. However, among migrants, 57.8 percent of the females and 25.8 percent of males were illiterate.

NSSO data for 2007-08 reveals that 52 percent short- duration migrants were either illiterate or had not completed primary education.

Sensex may touch 21,000 level by Diwali: Experts

New Delhi: The BSE benchmark Sensex is likely to hit the much awaited psychological level of 21,000 this Diwali, driven by robust foreign fund inflow, good quarterly earnings from corporates so far and favourable global cues, say analysts.

The Sensex touched its one-year high level of 20,932.23 on Friday triggered by global cues as concerns about the US tapering eased and China's economic growth picked up.

The 30-stock index is 323.88 points away from its all- time peak of 21,206.77 hit on January 10, 2008.

Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors (FIIs), the main driver of the Indian stock market, have poured in nearly Rs 7,000 crore (USD 1.12 billion) in the domestic equity market since the beginning of this month.

With this, the total foreign investment in the Indian stock market has reached Rs 80,174 crore (USD 14.77 billion) so far in 2013, as per data available with market regulator Sebi.

Marketmen attributed the foreign fund inflows to easing concerns over the US tapering.

"Markets rose sharply on Friday, buoyed by the postponement of the debt ceiling issue and on likely expectations that the Fed will not taper the stimulus programme in its next meeting, pending final resolution of the debt ceiling programme," said Dipen Shah, Head of Private Client Group Research at Kotak Securities.

The Sensex has gained 1,365.74 points or 6.99 percent so far this month to 20,882.89.

According to analysts, the way things are looking positive for the country and the liquidity force will take markets to higher levels.

"The Sensex is likely to remain strong in near-term. The kind of inflows and liquidity that we are seeing indicates that the Sensex may scale new highs in the days to come. The Sensex is likely to touch its all-time high by Diwali as the global set-up is good, results by Indian Inc is reasonably decent and most importantly FII inflows are robust," said Paras Bothra, Research Head at Ashika Stock Brokers.

The sentiment in the market last week was boosted on speculation that Federal Reserve could maintain monetary stimulus next year on concerns that the 16-day partial US government shutdown may curb growth in the world's largest economy.

"Markets may move up further as indications from the US markets are positive, corporate results are good. Besides, FIIs are positive on the Indian stock market. So, it is likely that markets may touch their record high levels by Diwali," said Alex Matthews, Geojit BNP, Research Head.

BSE Sensex fails to maintain initial gains, turns negative

New Delhi: The S&P BSE benchmark Sensex failed to maintain initial gains and was quoted lower in afternoon trade Monday on selling pressure mainly in consumer durables and IT counters.

The 30-share index opened higher at 20,915.76 and moved up to 20,970.92 on buying in capital goods, auto and realty shares on the back persistent capital inflows from foreign funds coupled with higher global cues.

However, it later dropped to 20,787.56 and was quoted at 20,810, showing a loss of 72.74 points, from its last weekend's level.

Similarly, the 50-share NSE benchmark Nifty moved lower by 7.70 points, to 6,182.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 1752.98 crore on last Friday, according to provisional data from the stock exchanges.

Asian markets rose as traders continued buying spree that began last week on bets that US Federal Reserve will continue its monetary stimulus for the world's largest economy.

Key benchmark indices in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia and Japan rose between 0.1 percent and 1.13 percent, while indices in South Korea and Taiwan fell between 0.12 percent and 0.21 percent.

How to make Narendra Modi PM, Web masters at work

The Congress polled about 11 crore votes to win the 2009 general election decisively. In 2014, when the country votes again, it will have more than 14 crore mobile Internet users alone.
That’s a thought for pause. And that’s the thought that Narendra Modi seized upon at a BJP office-bearers’ meeting in Delhi on April 7 to underline how the 2014 polls could be won — on the Internet. Two months later, after being named the BJP’s campaign committee chief, he told a Maharashtra core group meeting that there were 165 Lok Sabha seats where social media could be used to enhance the campaign pitch.
That thought has since then fructified into an Information and Communication sub-committee headed by Rajya Sabha MP Piyush Goyal, as part of the panels set up by the BJP on July 19 to look after various aspects of its poll campaign. The sub-committee in turn is helped by the party’s IT cell, with an alumnus of IIT-BHU, Arvind Gupta, as convenor, and a Communication (or Samvad) Cell, headed by an MBA degree holder from IIFT (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade), Anupam Trivedi.
The BJP’s IT drive includes a third arm outside the party fold: Rajesh Jain. An IIT-Bombay alumnus and one of the original IT entrepreneurs turned venture capitalists and serial entrepreneurs, he is working as a volunteer for the party.
“Rajesh, Arvind and Anupam are the three pillars of my Information and Communication sub-committee,” says Piyush Goyal.
While Gupta and his team look after digital and social media platforms, Trivedi’s men work on content development. Jain and his self-initiated team handle IT-enabled election management down to the booth level.
If anyone had doubts about how thorough this work was, Jain effectively removed these at a meeting in the Capital on August 18, according to those present. Asked to make a presentation before a gathering of BJP central office-bearers, state unit chiefs and state organisation secretaries, Jain took up former deputy chief minister of Bihar Sushil Modi as an example, used a software tool that crawls through the Election Commission’s database of electoral rolls, identified the BJP leader’s polling booth, then

India can't afford fiscal slippages: Fitch

New Delhi: Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday cautioned that fiscal slippage could have negative bearing on India's sovereign rating, which is at the lowest investment grade in view of weakening CAD and persistent inflationary pressure.

"In India and Indonesia, both BBB- (lowest investment credit rating) with stable outlook, their relatively weak starting positions with high inflation and recent rises in current account deficits (CAD) suggest that their credit profiles have limited tolerance for policy slippage that saw their current account deficits and-or inflation rates stay high or rise further," it said.

Countries experiencing the greatest pressure on their currencies and reserve levels are those where weakening current-account positions and persistent inflationary pressure have raised doubts over the credibility of policy management - India and Indonesia in particular, it said.

In a report titled 'Emerging Asia: Slowing Growth Amid Market Pressures', Fitch sees limited scope for policy slippage for either sovereign at the current rating levels of 'BBB-' with stable outlook.

The government is taking all steps to contain fiscal deficit to 4.8 percent of the GDP in the current fiscal.

The fiscal deficit during 2012-13 came down to 4.9 percent of the GDP from 5.8 percent a year earlier.

"The government will do whatever is necessary to contain the fiscal deficit to 4.8 percent of GDP this year. The most growth-friendly way to contain the deficit is to spend carefully, especially on subsidies that do not reach the poor, and we will take effective steps to that end," Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram at many occasions has reiterated that red line has been drawn for the fiscal deficit and they will not be breached.

With aim to stick to fiscal deficit target, the government had announced slew of austerity measures including reduction in non-plan expenditure, ban on holding seminars in five-star hotels and creation of new jobs.

As for the Current Account Deficit (CAD), it was expected to be less than USD 70 billion or 3.7 percent of GDP for the full fiscal.

The CAD, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign funds, was at 4.9 percent of GDP in the April-June quarter.

India's service sector activity suffers worst slump in over 4 years in Sept

 
Bangalore: Activity at Indian services companies shrank at the fastest pace in more than four years last month, suggesting the slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy still has some way to run, a survey showed on Friday.

The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, slipped from 47.6 in August to 44.6 in September, its weakest since April 2009.

That marked its straight third reading below 50, the threshold between growth and contraction.

It showed firms were less optimistic about the future and were cutting staff as new business dries up.

The PMI also capped the worst quarter for the Indian services sector - which accounts for nearly 60 percent of the economy - in more than four years, stoking fears that growth in the three months to September will be weaker than April through June.

India's economy grew just 4.4 percent in the quarter to June, its weakest quarterly pace since the first three months of 2009.

"Service sector activity contracted further in September ... as tighter financial conditions and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on growth," said Leif Eskesen, chief economist for India at survey sponsor HSBC.

The PMI's new business index fell to 45.0 in September from 46.6 in August, the weakest reading since February 2009 and the third month running that demand has declined.

Such weak demand augurs poorly for coming months, too.

An HSBC Markit manufacturing survey released on Tuesday showed factory activity shrank for a second month in September.

Adding to economic woes, a ballooning current account deficit has driven funds out of the country, hurting the Indian rupee and pushing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to adopt measures which effectively drained cash from the market.

Those moves raised funding costs for banks and companies, creating a ripple effect that has crimped investment.

The weaker currency also pushed wholesale inflation to a six-month high in August, prompting RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's surprise repo rate hike of 25 basis points to 7.50 percent on September 20.

"Despite the weak growth backdrop, inflation readings held broadly steady. This, in turn, supports RBI's stepped up efforts to better anchor inflation expectations," said Eskesen.

However, economists in a Reuters poll taken last week were split over whether Rajan will hike rates again at the central bank's next policy review on October 29.

Rupee advances to 7-week high at 61.45 against dollar

Selling of the US currency by banks and exporters triggered by its weakness overseas helped the Indian rupee advance by 28 paise to a seven-week high of 61.45 against the dollar in late morning deals on Friday.

Good foreign capital inflows into equity market also boosted the rupee value against the dollar, a forex dealer said.

The rupee resumed lower at 61.85 per dollar as against the Thursday's closing level of 61.73 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market on mild dollar demand from some banks.

However, it recovered immediately to 61.34 before quoting 61.45 per dollar at 1045 hours, on fresh selling by banks and exporters.

It may be recalled that the dollar was quoted at 61.32 on August 16, 2013.

The domestic currency hovered in a range of 61.34 and 61.95 per dollar during the morning deals.

In New York market, the dollar hit an eight-month low against the euro on Thursday as investors grew more concerned about the economic effects of a prolonged shutdown and debt-ceiling debate.

Meanwhile, the benchmark BSE index Sensex moved down by 29.66 points or 0.15 per cent to 19,872.41 at 1125hours, after earlier touching the 20K level.