A day after the market benchmark sniffed at life-time high,
German brokerage Deutsche Bank on Friday raised its year-end Sensex
target to a record high of 22,000 points, saying investor pessimism
earlier this year is receding amid positive developments like the good
monsoons.
"We are raising our December Sensex target from 21,000
to 22,000 premised on our expectation that the pace of negative news
flow over the country and excessive investor pessimism may be receding,"
Deutsche Bank said.
The Sensex hit an all-time high of 21,206.77
on January 1, 2008, while during intra-day on Thursday, it had scaled
21,039.42. While on January 1, 2008, the Sensex was trading at 28.12
times its PE, on Wednesday it was 18.89 times.
The bank said
currency stability, lowering gold imports, rising exports and taper
postponement have imparted considerable legitimacy to the government's
commitment to contain CAD - the main pain-point for the economy.
In
addition, the best monsoon in 15 years is expected to lay the
foundation for an accelerated recovery in the rural economy which
accounts for 56 per cent of total income and 64 per cent of total
expenditure.
While stating it is not expecting any imminent turn
in private sector investment momentum and remains cautious over near
term monetary policy action, the brokerage has based its optimism on macroeconomy,
likely withdrawal of extraordinary liquidity tightening measures by
RBI, a synchronised global growth recovery and a US Fed that is expected
to stay 'looser for longer'.
"At our target the Sensex will
trade at a PE multiple of 15 times, in line with its past five trading
average," the brokerage said.
The benchmark BSE Sensex fell 0.2 per cent, or 42.45 points, to end at 20,725.43 on Thursday.
On
its preferred stocks/sectors, it replaced IT services which it holds as
'neutral' with banks as the biggest portfolio overweight followed by
metals, citing receding concerns over tight liquidity and higher
short-end interest rates.
"Our top picks include Axis Bank,
Bharti Airtel, Bharat Forge, Coal India, Godrej Consumer, ITC, IndusInd
Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, RIL, Tata Steel and Zee.
"We
have raised banks as the top overweight in our model portfolio as we
believe that excessive concerns over tight liquidity and elevated
short-end rates are behind us, and fears of sharp margin compression and
treasury losses have waned," it said.
However, it said the three
key themes investors will be playing out will be currency
stabilisation, rural demand recovery and global growth.
Stating
that the overall scene is not as bad as it appeared earlier, it said
following fears over the Fed taper in May and the sharp currency
depreciation, investors had feared a vicious economic cycle for the
country and a protracted return to normalcy.
It also noted that
contrary to prevailing pessimism during the currency crisis, the Q2
earnings so far have been above street expectations, assuaging investor
concerns over an accelerated earnings downgrade cycle.