PM-speak on rupee tumble does not have enough currency

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One area where policymakers have failed in recent years is their inability in continuing to attract long-term capital.

September 1, 2013:  

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh embarks on an overseas visit this week to attend the G-20 Saint Petersburg Summit, he may pray and hope that the likely US action on Syria will delay the tapering of US stimulus.

The hope being that developments on Syria may prompt the US Federal Reserve to think twice about tapering in September.

For this past month, when rupee hit a record low against the dollar, Indian policy makers have tended to lay the blame for the fall in rupee on “external factors” such as the May 22 announcement of likely US stimulus tapering.

Seldom had one seen Indian policymakers and political leaders take ownership for their policy goof ups or for that matter even their policy inactions.

In this backdrop, the Prime Minister’s recent statement in Parliament on the rupee slide was seen more in the nature of excuses given by a failed student.

It was quite perplexing to note that he went the extra mile to remind the developed countries – in pursuing their fiscal and monetary policies – that they should take into account the repercussions on emerging economies.

What about India’s own domestic policy failings that had led to the current situation? ask experts from the international policy community.

This is even as they took comfort from the Prime Minister’s reassurance to the international community on his commitment to reforms and restraint from capital controls.

One area where policymakers have failed in recent years, is their inability in continuing to attract long-term capital.

India has been relying on short-term capital flows to fund its deficits.

After sleeping on the wheel for nearly four years, the UPA Government is now, in the last year of its term, pushing for several reforms that may not be fiscally prudent.

The Food Security Bill has political engineering all over it, say economy watchers. The Food Security Bill is another way of distorting prices, mis-allocating resources and adding to the fiscal burden in the longer term, says Peter Drysdale, a Professor of Economics at Australian National University.

“India’s progress through reforms has been impressive in the last two decades. But this (Food Security Bill) sends a wrong signal to the reform process.

“This and recent hardening of approach to FDI signals that a caution is needed about India’s deep commitment to the reform process.”

Lack of confidence in policy commitment is the main reason for the short-term shock now experienced by India. Any wise Government should recognise this, says Drysdale.

Fiscal discipline, commitment to openness on capital and commitment to leaving the exchange rate do its proper job are the need of the hour.

It’s not clear that the latter commitment is being taken seriously. Defending the currency may not be a right approach or a long-term solution.