India's service sector activity suffers worst slump in over 4 years in Sept

 
Bangalore: Activity at Indian services companies shrank at the fastest pace in more than four years last month, suggesting the slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy still has some way to run, a survey showed on Friday.

The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, slipped from 47.6 in August to 44.6 in September, its weakest since April 2009.

That marked its straight third reading below 50, the threshold between growth and contraction.

It showed firms were less optimistic about the future and were cutting staff as new business dries up.

The PMI also capped the worst quarter for the Indian services sector - which accounts for nearly 60 percent of the economy - in more than four years, stoking fears that growth in the three months to September will be weaker than April through June.

India's economy grew just 4.4 percent in the quarter to June, its weakest quarterly pace since the first three months of 2009.

"Service sector activity contracted further in September ... as tighter financial conditions and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on growth," said Leif Eskesen, chief economist for India at survey sponsor HSBC.

The PMI's new business index fell to 45.0 in September from 46.6 in August, the weakest reading since February 2009 and the third month running that demand has declined.

Such weak demand augurs poorly for coming months, too.

An HSBC Markit manufacturing survey released on Tuesday showed factory activity shrank for a second month in September.

Adding to economic woes, a ballooning current account deficit has driven funds out of the country, hurting the Indian rupee and pushing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to adopt measures which effectively drained cash from the market.

Those moves raised funding costs for banks and companies, creating a ripple effect that has crimped investment.

The weaker currency also pushed wholesale inflation to a six-month high in August, prompting RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's surprise repo rate hike of 25 basis points to 7.50 percent on September 20.

"Despite the weak growth backdrop, inflation readings held broadly steady. This, in turn, supports RBI's stepped up efforts to better anchor inflation expectations," said Eskesen.

However, economists in a Reuters poll taken last week were split over whether Rajan will hike rates again at the central bank's next policy review on October 29.

Inflation for factory workers slips to 10.75% in August

New Delhi: Retail inflation for industrial workers eased marginally to 10.75 percent in August as compared to 10.85 percent in the previous month, mainly on account of lower prices of fruits, vegetables and edible oil.

However, retail inflation measured in terms of all India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) during August was higher than 10.31 recorded in the same month last year.

"The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 10.75 percent for August, 2013 as compared to 10.85 percent for the previous month and 10.31 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year," a Labour Ministry statement said.

"... The food inflation stood at 13.91 percent against 14.10 percent of the previous month and 12.20 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year," it stated.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from food group, contributing 1.58 percentage points to the total change.

At item level, rice, wheat, wheat atta, goat meat, dairy milk, milk (cow & buffalo), onions, chillies, tea (readymade), firewood, doctors' fee, private tuition fee, secondary school books, petrol, tailoring charges are responsible for the rise in index.

However, this was compensated to some extent by groundnut oil, fish, fresh vegetables and fruit items, putting downward pressure on the index.

According to a press release, all-India CPI-IW for August rose by 2 points, and pegged at 237. On a one-month percentage change, it increased by 0.85 percent between July and August compared with 0.94 percent between the same two months a year ago.

At centre level, Chindwara recorded the highest increase of 8 points each followed by Jalpaiguri and Siliguri (7), Durgapur (10) and Ranchi, Hatia, Nagpur, Kolkata, Asansol and Tiruchirapally (6 each).

Among others, 5 points rise was registered in 8 centres, 4 points in 6 centres, 3 points in 12 centres, 2 points in 13 centres and 1 point in 19 centres.

On the contrary, Goa reported a decline of 5 points, followed by Ernakulam, Quilon and Surat (2 each) and 3 other centres by 1 point each. Rest of the 6 centres'indices remained stationary.

The indices of 39 centres are above All-India Index and other 38 centres' indices are below national average. The index of Tiruchirapally centre remained at par with all-India index.

New RBI chief Rajan raises hopes with action plan

Mumbai: New Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chief Raghuram Rajan kicked-off his term with a bang, announcing a spate of measures to support the embattled rupee and unveiling a raft of steps to liberalise financial markets and the banking sector.

In an unexpectedly detailed and wide-ranging briefing, Rajan outlined plans to attract more funds from overseas by subsidising hedging costs for banks and making it easier for importers and exporters to hedge currency risk.

He made clear his intention to liberalise markets, including pushing for more rupee trade settlement, introducing new financial products such as overnight interest rate swaps and removing curbs on opening new branches by Indian banks.

"Some of the actions I take will not be popular," said Rajan, who famously predicted the global financial crisis and took over at the central bank in Mumbai on Wednesday after nearly a year as chief economic advisor in the finance ministry in New Delhi.

His forceful debut, which contrasted with more circumspect public comments in recent months, drew rave reviews from central-bank watchers.

A. Prasanna, economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said he expects bonds, the rupee and Indian stocks, especially those of banks, to react positively on Thursday.

"Overall, the way and kind of steps he has announced will instill confidence in the market, which was in short supply."

A prominent former International Monetary Fund chief economist, Rajan, 50, succeeds Duvvuri Subbarao at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India. He enters office in the eye of a financial storm as the country grapples with its worst economic crisis since 1991, which has sent the rupee skidding by some 20 percent this year.

"The governorship of the central bank is not meant to win one votes or Facebook 'likes'. But I hope to do the right thing, no matter what the criticism, even while looking to learn from the criticism," he told reporters.

Many critics and investors have complained about what they viewed as inconsistent communication and insufficient action from policymakers as economic growth has crumbled to a four-year-low of 4.4 percent in the June quarter and as the rupee last week hit a record low.

"Expectations were quite high from him and he has gone far beyond expectations on day 1," said Barclays economist Siddhartha Sanyal. "The fact that he has come with such pointed steps in mind shows that we will see more concrete steps very soon."

Earlier on Wednesday, the rupee rallied after suspected dollar sales by the central bank and after Reuters exclusively reported that the RBI was considering a plan that would help lenders raise money from expatriate Indians. Rajan, in his remarks, outlined the plan to attract more funds from non-resident Indians (NRIs) as part of a broader push to lure inflows.

The rupee recovered sharply from a day's low of 68.62 per dollar to close at 67.065.

Under the plan, the central bank will offer a swap window to banks for fresh dollar deposits mobilised from non-resident Indians. India has the world's second-biggest diaspora, according to the Ministry of Overseas India Affairs, and the country has turned to overseas Indians for help in past financial crises.

The central bank will also offer forex swap into rupees at a concessional rate below market levels for banks who raise dollar funds through overseas borrowings.

HIGH EXPECTATIONS

Rajan's arrival has been welcomed by some traders, who hope for a fresh approach to the RBI's controversial bid to defend the rupee by tightening cash conditions and raising short-term interest rates. Those measures have pushed up borrowing costs even as economic growth sputters and have shown little success to date in braking the rupee's descent.

Among Rajan's measures, he said banks should gradually be allowed to decrease their mandatory holdings of government securities, which would free up capital for lending.

He also said new bank licences should be awarded on an ongoing basis. The central bank is now in the process of awarding the first new bank licences in a decade.

Rajan also proposed the issue of inflation-indexed bonds linked to the consumer price index, an indication that the central bank may soon shift its inflation benchmark from the wholesale price index.

"He didn't take cover saying that he will first overcome the current problems and then take steps. He thinks both can be done simultaneously," Prasanna if ICICI Securities said.

Rajan also pushed back the date of the RBI's next monetary policy review by two days to September 20. That will give the central bank more time to consider the outcome of what is expected to be a pivotal two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, ending on September 18.

The prospect that the Fed will soon unveil a plan to start winding down its monetary stimulus is weighing on emerging markets, with India faring worse than most because of a lack of confidence it can address its hefty fiscal deficit and its record current account deficit.

In a reminder of the uphill task Rajan faces, a report on Wednesday showed that activity in India's services sector shrank in August for the second straight month for its lowest reading in four years, the latest indication that growth in Asia's third-largest economy is still slowing.

"The biggest positive in this entire speech is the confidence. I think there will be decisiveness in the way things move, which will spread to the markets as well," said Ananth Narayan G., co-head of wholesale banking for South Asia at Standard Chartered Bank.