'Mfg growth to remain subdued in Q3 on high interest rates'

New Delhi: The country's manufacturing sector is expected to witness subdued growth in the October-December quarter on concerns over high interest rates, a survey by industry body Ficci today said.

"Low or subdued growth is supported primarily by some improvement on export front. However, we are seeing rising concerns over the cost of credit by the manufacturers as compared to previous surveys," Ficci President Naina Lal Kidwai said.

Upturn in industrial sector is particularly evident in sectors like leather, textiles, cement, chemicals and textiles machinery. At the same time, sectors like automotive, capital goods and electronics are expected to witness sluggish growth in Q3, the survey found.

Besides, outlook on hiring looks bleak in manufacturing, with over 75 percent of the respondents unlikely to hire additional workforce in next three months.

Moreover, the survey found that five out of thirteen sectors were likely to witness low growth (less than 5 percent). Only two sectors, leather and paper, are expected to have a strong growth of over 10 percent in Q3 2013-14 while remaining sectors are likely to witness moderate growth.

"Notably, the proportion of respondents availing credit above 12 percent per annum rose significantly in the current survey to 58 percent as compared to 42 percent in previous survey", Kidwai said.

Interest rate paid by the manufacturers, as reported in the survey, ranges from 8 to 16 percent with average interest rate at around 12 percent per annum.

The investment scenario in manufacturing sector will also remains subdued in Q3 with 72 percent respondents not having any plans for capacity additions for the next six months as compared to 74 percent respondents in the previous survey.

However, the demand conditions appear to be slightly better with 44 percent respondents reporting higher order books for Q3 2013-14 as compared to 32 percent respondents in the previous quarter.

The survey covers thirteen major sectors namely textiles, capital goods, textiles machinery, metals, chemicals, cement, electronics, automotive, leather & footwear, machine tools, food processing, paper and tyre.

FM asks service tax defaulters to come clean

 
New Delhi: In a stern warning to 10 lakh service tax defaulters, Finance Minister P Chidambaram today asked them to come clean so as to avoid punishment.

"We have reached the tipping point where we have to pause, take stock, talk to you, offer a fair and generous transition method and persuade as many of you to come over to paying taxes before the tax is enforced in a strict manner.

"VCES is just that. The one who has not paid service tax to draw a curtain on the past and move on to a new chapter in his business. That is what VCES is," he said.

He was meeting representatives of various trade and industry associations and chambers of commerce and industry to encourage them to take advantage of the service tax amnesty scheme -- Voluntary Compliance Encouragement Scheme (VCES).

Chidambaram said that of the total 17 lakh registered service tax payers, only seven lakh of them were paying the levy.

"This scheme is aimed at 10 lakh people who either are non filer or stop filer. Many of the 10 lakh have not filed at all, or not paid service tax at all. Many have paid from certain period and then stopped paying. I don't know who is cleverer, the guy who never pays or who stops paying," he said.

The Finance Minister, who earlier had a similar interaction in Chennai, said he does not believe in harsh penalties, but "sometimes it is necessary to send a stern message".

Both the non-filer and stop-filer are treading on dangerous ground, he cautioned.

"We have enough information today about business companies, firms, partnerships. We have the PAN numbers. We have digitised most of our operations," he said.

Rupee will settle down: Chidambaram

New Delhi: With the rupee declining to a two-month low of 63 to a dollar, Finance Minister P Chidambaram Monday assured the domestic currency will stabilise.

"Rupee will settle down," he told reporters here.

In early trade today, the rupee fell to 63.33 to a dollar, its weakest since September 18.

The Indian currency started weakening since last week after the dollar purchase by oil companies was partly shifted to the market.

"Rupee weakness is due to OMC forex demand being moved to market. 30-40 percent of OMC demand has moved to market," Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram had said last week.

The PSU oil companies are the biggest buyers of dollars, requiring USD 8-8.5 billion every month for the import of an average 7.5 million tonne of crude oil.

In August, the Reserve Bank had opened a special window to help the three state-owned oil marketing companies -- IOC, HPCL and BPCL -- to meet daily foreign exchange requirements and buy dollars directly from RBI.

The rupee has recovered over 8 percent since August 28, when it fell to a record low of 68.85 to the dollar. The gain in rupee had followed optimism that the US Federal Reserve would delay the tapering of its bond buying programme.

Economic data and global trends to dictate the market

As expected, the market was in a corrective phase last week, which saw the Sensex drop nearly three per cent (573 points) to end below the 21,000 mark at 20,666.15. A weak rupee and rising crude oil prices also contributed to the fall. The slowdown in foreign inflows saw players booking profits. Prior to last week's fall, the Sensex had touched an all-time high of 21,321 on Diwali day.

In terms of fundamentals the Indian equity market does not have the strength to inch higher. It's on a support system, propped up by global liquidity. As long as money continues to flow into the market, the Sensex will hold up. Many are hoping for positive triggers on the domestic front as well which could help the Sensex maintain its upward momentum, but these are unlikely ahead of the general election slated in May 2014.

A silver lining for Indian markets is that rating agencies will not be changing India's rating till next year. This means India will continue to enjoy investment grade rating. The other positive is the continuing weakness in the Eurozone. The latest developments are the downgrading of France by Standard & Poor's which lowered its rating from AA+ to AA, and the rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) last week from 0.5 per cent to 0.25 per cent on concerns of deflationary risk. As a result more money may flow from European economies to safe haven like India.

As against this, fears of an early tapering off of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve have again surfaced, and may affect market sentiment. Though 'tapering' is bound to start sooner or later, it will not be the end of quantitative easing, it will just slow down the pace of fund infusion into the US economy. Since 2008, when the global downturn struck, the US Federal Reserve has pumped $3.85 trillion into the economy.

Ultimately, as noted earlier, in the near-term, liquidity and only liquidity will dictate the future course of market movement. If money flow continues, fundamentals will take a backseat and the Sensex will inch higher. But if India hopes to rank among the most favoured markets by global investors, the economy will need to improve to the level where gross domestic product growth is in the seven to eight per cent range. At present, that remains a distant dream.

Once growth momentum returns so will liquidity and fresh investment. On the contrary, if the current low growth environment continues, there will be growing stress, some of which is already evident from the September ended quarterly results of many companies.

In the coming week, apart from global trends, domestic economic indicators such as the October trade deficit numbers - which will be announced on Monday - the September industrial output data - expected on Tuesday - and October inflation data - due on Friday - will dictate Sensex movement. Currently it seems the movement is likely to be range bound with a downward bias.

 

Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bse-sensex-markets-indian-economy-global-trends-oil-price/1/322534.html

SAIL Q2 net profit zooms to Rs 1,180 cr

 
A Rs 1,056-crore exceptional gain and cheaper coal fuelled Steel Authority of India's (SAIL) net profit in the July-September quarter to more than double at Rs 1,180 crore, although realisation fell by 6.5 per cent on subdued prices.

SAIL, which clocked Rs 543 crore net profit during the same quarter of 2012-13 fiscal, largely met its 15-16 million tonne (MT) coking coal requirements through imports, mostly from the US and Australia.

During the second quarter, the PSU got "exceptional" amount of Rs 1,056 crore from global mining major Vale towards damages due to non-supply of full quantity of contracted hard coking coal, leading to a big boost in the bottom-line.

However, this did not truly reflect on the profitability of the company as it had to make a provision, which stands at Rs 1,150 crore now, for an impending wage hike of its close to 85,000 non-executives.

"One of the reasons of increase in our profit was lesser prices of coal. The price of the imported coal which was     $220 per tonne during the second quarter fiscal has come down to $135 per tonne. So, there was a savings of Rs 885 crore to the company on this account," SAIL Chairman CS Verma said.

On the flip side again was the dip in realisation to the tune of Rs 720 crore during the second quarter ended September 30, compared to the year-ago period.

"Sales realisation during the second quarter of the last financial year was Rs 37,210 per tonne. During this quarter, this came down to Rs 34,230 per tonne, thus there is a dip of 6.5 per cent in realisation," Verma said.

Despite the decline in realisation, which has a bearing on the prices, SAIL sold 3.015 MT steel during the quarter, against 2.616 MT a year ago, clocking a 15 per cent growth.

Turnover was also up by 7 per cent to Rs 12,802 crore.

SAIL's total expenditure, at Rs 11,067.42 crore, amounted to nearly 96 per cent of the total income during the July-September period. In the second quarter of 2012-13 fiscal, the expenditure (at Rs 10,113.63 crore) was 93.51 per cent of total income (Rs 10,815.56 crore).

Its finance costs were up over 16 per cent to Rs 216.48 crore, while other income declined by over 33 per cent to Rs 152.71 crore in the last quarter. The company's tax outgo also declined by over 13 per cent to Rs 212 crore in Q2 FY14.

Verma said steel demand will pick up in the coming days, but prices will hover around the same level.

Reliance Infrastructure Q2 net jumps 12 pc to Rs 427 crore

Reliance Infrastructure has reported a 12 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit at Rs 427 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2013.

The company had posted a net profit of Rs 382 crore in the corresponding quarter of previous year (2012-13), Reliance Infrastructure said in a statement.

Total income of the company dropped to Rs 5,273 crore from Rs 5,798 crore in the corresponding period of the last financial year (2012-13).

On a standalone basis, the net profit of the company for the quarter ended September 30, 2013 declined over 16 per cent at Rs 345.82 crore, said its BSE filing. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 414.13 crore in the same period, last fiscal (2012-13).

Total income from operations decreased to Rs 2,831.80 crore from Rs 3,500.22 crore in the corresponding period of the last financial year (2012-13).

Reliance Infra is engaged in several areas in the infrastructure sector i.e. roads, metro rail, cement and airports.

During the quarter, the company said it earned revenues to the tune of Rs 159 crore from its road projects

"Reliance Metro Rail Line in Mumbai is scheduled to be commissioned within the current financial year," the company said in a statement.

Trial runs being conducted regularly on the entire Versova-Andheri-Ghatkopar corridor, the statement added.

The company's first 5 million tonnes per annum cement plant in Madhya Pradesh will start commercial production by this month end, it said.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 440.95 apiece, down 2.14 per cent on BSE.

World Bank says expanded access to banking services comes with risks

In Brazil, bank customers can access their accounts aboard a floating bank on the Amazon River. In Mexico, rural residents find banking services inside popular stores like Walmart or 7-Eleven, or at their local pharmacy.

Mobile technology and regulatory reforms have made it easier and cheaper for private and public companies around the world to offer banking services to the poor, youth, women and rural residents, and others who lacked access.

But in a new report released on Monday, the World Bank warns that while some services, like low-fee accounts, clearly benefit the poor and small firms, others - such as microcredit, microinsurance, and debt relief - can do more harm than good.

"We're very careful to make sure we're not saying that everyone should be borrowing," said Asli Demirguc-Kunt, the World Bank's director of research and co-author of the report.

Instead, the World Bank encourages governments to reduce regulatory barriers, legal hurdles or other factors that make financial services too expensive for some, such as boosting competition and protecting the rights of creditors.

Access to finance helps the world's poorest save so they can invest in education and improve standards of living, and enables small companies to borrow so they can grow. It also makes it easier for governments to target subsidies and financial assistance to the bank accounts of the neediest.

More than 50 governments have pledged to improve financial inclusion, or the number of people and companies that use financial services. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim last month also announced a target of universal financial access by 2020. Now, about 2.5 billion people, or half the world's adult population, lack access to financial services.

Microcredit, or tiny loans to the poor, came into vogue in the late 1990s as a way of providing banking services to the world's poorest in order to combat poverty and boost entrepreneurship.

But several studies in recent years have shown that microcredit, which often comes with very high interest rates, has little or no impact on the financial fates of people in nations such as Mexico, the Philippines, Morocco and India.

The World Bank said India in particular offers a cautionary tale about the overextension of credit, after reports of dozens of suicides by poor borrowers in 2010 in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.

India lacked appropriate protection for consumers and legal provisions for personal bankruptcy, the bank said. In general, governments should avoid directed credit and lending through state-owned banks, as these interventions can become tied to politics, according to the World Bank.

Fingerprinting, Iris scans

But innovative financial instruments and new technology have made it easier to expand access, even in countries without strong institutions.

One experiment in rural Malawi collected the fingerprints of some farmers that wanted loans to grow paprika. The experiment showed that farmers who were at highest risk for default were more likely to pay back a loan if they were fingerprinted, since they worried they might not get another loan in the future.

The identification could also make lenders more likely to extend credit since they would have better information about borrowers.

"Recent research suggests that biometric identification (such as fingerprinting, iris scans, and so on) can substantially reduce information problems and moral hazard in credit markets," the World Bank said.

Other tools that can encourage people to save in formal bank accounts are commitment savings accounts, where people give up access to their money for a set period of time, or regular reminders of savings goals.

But the World Bank said it was important to have more educated consumers in addition to enabling government policies. For that, standard financial literacy classes generally fail at preparing people for major financial decisions.

"A person can learn the meaning of street signs, but this does not make him capable of driving in traffic," the bank said.

Instead, what seems to work better is providing information just as a person is starting a new job or purchasing a financial product.

"You need the right regulations in place, but also to educate consumers so that they watch out for themselves," Demirguc-Kunt said.